List of papers accepted for
the conference on Climate Change and Security,
Trondheim Norway,
21–24 June 2010
(In alphabetical order by
first author)
Ignatius Madu Ani, Department of Geography, University of
Nigeria Nsukka
Spatial analysis of rural households’
vulnerability to climate change in Nigeria
The study analyzed the
pattern of rural households’ vulnerability to climate change in Nigeria
using integrated vulnerability assessment approach. Accordingly socio-economic
and biophysical indicators of vulnerability were employed and classified into
three classes, viz adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure on the basis of
definition of vulnerability adopted for the analysis. The data on adaptive
capacity and sensitivity were obtained from Annual Abstract of Statistics 2006,
General Household Survey 2006 and the Nigerian Core Welfare indicator
Questionnaire Survey (CWIQ) 2006 while dummies on coastal/river floods and
drought which are climate extremes that capture exposure were used. Two
sensitivity variables namely rainfall variability and change in temperature were
represented by coefficient of variation and annual temperature range
respectively. The calculations of vulnerability indices show that generally
majority of the states have low vulnerability to climate change in Nigeria. The
results also show that the more vulnerable states are located in the north and
that they do not only experience frequent drought but are also characterized by
low technological and socioeconomic development. Based on the findings measures
to mainstream climate change adaptation into rural development and security
process were recommended.
Margrethe Aune, Department of Interdisciplinary Studies of
Culture, NTNU
Climate, consumption and consciousness
Energy production and
consumption are the main sources of the climate problem. Thus, energy
conservation is one of the most important political goals in most western
industrialized societies of today with the households as one of the key targets
of energy policy. This paper discusses how Norwegian consumers construct their
everyday life and what possible implications climate change discussions have had
upon private energy consumption in two periods – 1995 and 2006. Can we observe
changes in how climate issues are understood? Do changes in perceptions and
knowledge affect the daily routines of everyday life? What is the role of the
policy regarding possible changes? The answers to these questions are provided
through analysis of both quantitative survey material and qualitative interviews
with members of Norwegian households. The analysis show that the direct
association between climate change and energy use in dwellings is weak in both
periods. The term pollution was mainly connected to transportation and waste
management and sustainable action were mostly connected to these types of
activities. In 2006 however, people realized that the country needed to import
energy from polluting sources and this insight made the connection between
energy production and environmental problems stronger. Thus, some changes in
attitudes can be observed, but little has happened regarding everyday life
actions. What we perceive are lack of co-production between climate change
sciences and energy policy. This makes it difficult to gain a necessary focus on
energy conservation in everyday life. Moreover, it makes it difficult to
establish a permanent energy saving discourse. In order to develop a more
efficient policy towards the private market, it is necessary to elaborate on
such processes and address the coproduction of climate change, energy
consumption and policy.
Ayanlade Ayansina, Obafemi
Awolowo University,
Ife, Nigeria
Climate change/variability and malaria
transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: The case of Nigeria
This study developed integrated innovation for malaria early warning systems (MEWS),
based on vulnerability monitoring, seasonal climate variability data, and
epidemiologic surveillance. The main aim of the study is to examine the
relationship between intra-annual climate variability and malaria transmission
in Nigeria.
For this study, climatic conditions considered suitable for its development and
transmission through the mosquito stage of its life cycle are temperatures
within the range 18°C to 32°C, but below 18°C parasite development decreases
significantly. Above 32°C the survival of the mosquito is compromised. Relative
humidity greater than 60% is also considered as a requirement for the mosquito
to survive long enough for the parasite to develop sufficiently to be
transmitted to its human host stage. The research findings show that seasonality
of climate greatly influences the seasonality of malaria transmission.
Specifically, rainfall plays an important role in the distribution and
maintenance of breeding sites for the mosquito vector. Rainfall and surface
water is required for the egg laying and larval stages of the mosquito life
cycle and monthly rainfall above 80mm is considered as a requirement. Also, it
is temperature that regulates the development rate of both the mosquito larvae
and the malaria parasite (Plasmodium species) within the mosquito host. Relative
humidity and temperature play an important role in the survival and longevity of
the mosquito vector. This study are in conformity with the findings of IPCC
(2001) that malaria is caused by four distinct species of plasmodium parasite,
transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles, which are most abundant in
tropical/subtropical regions, although they are also found in limited numbers in
temperate climes.
Karina Barquet, Department of Geography, NTNU
Co-author: Päivi Lujala
Analyzing the relationship between
transboundary protected areas, conflict and climate change
Transboundary Protected Areas
(TPAs) are ecosystems which are regionally protected from human use, and built
irrespective of national boundaries to allow the free movement of species.
Besides biodiversity conservation, this type of protected areas aims at
enhancing cooperation between countries. However, TPAs may affect the social,
political and economic stability in the region they are situated. In some cases,
population re-settlement from more resource abundant areas to less abundant have
led to competition for resources and thus, contributed to local conflicts. This
paper investigates, using statistical methods, the current socio-political
situation and resource availability on areas surrounding TPAs. Are areas
surrounding TPAs more conflict prone? Is this related to the living conditions
experienced by the local people? This has high relevance to the present climate
change discussion since global warming will have a large impact on ecosystems
with the consequence that resource availability in some areas may decline. Our
study will therefore assess to what extent climate change may impact resource
availability in populated areas surrounding TPAs. Although there has been a
large volume of environmental security discourse over the past two decades,
where attempts of linking resource scarcity, ecological stress and conflict have
been made, the relationship between climate change and conflict is not yet
understood. This paper aims at contributing to this understanding. We will
therefore also discuss how the results from our study can be related to
scarcity-conflict discourse outside the context of TPAs.
Tor A. Benjaminsen, Noragric, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Co-author: Koffi Alinon
Environmental variations and conflicts in Mali in historical
perspective
The paper will be based on
archival research in Mali
focusing on the Mopti and Timbuktu
regions through the 20th century. Based on data on rainfall, water levels in the
Niger River, agricultural crops and administrative reports, a time
line of environmental change will be established. This time line will be
compared with reports on violent conflicts in the same period. It is expected
that most of these conflicts will be between farmers and herders.
Thomas Bernauer, Center for Comparative and International
Studies, ETH Zurich
Co-author: Lucas Beck
Water scenarios for the
Zambezi
river basin 2009–2050
Consumptive water use in the
Zambezi river basin (ZRB), one of the largest freshwater catchments in
Africa and worldwide, is currently around 15-20% of total runoff.
This suggests many development possibilities, particularly for irrigated
agriculture and hydropower production. Development plans of the riparian
countries suggest that consumptive water use might increase up to 40% of total
runoff by 2025. In this paper we submit that expanding water use in the
Zambezi
basin could become a source of disputes among the eight riparian countries. We
have constructed a rainfall-runoff model for the ZRB that is calibrated on the
best available runoff data for the basin. We then feed a wide range of water
demand drivers as well as climate change predictions into the model and assess
their implications for runoff at key points in the water catchment, including
Victoria Falls, Kariba reservoir, Kafue Gorge, and Cahora Bassa reservoir. The
results show that moderate to strong population and economic growth, moderate to
strong expansion of irrigated agriculture, moderate to strong climatic changes
and water transfers are likely to have very substantive transboundary impacts,
particularly in terms of reduced runoff at low flow times of the year (usually
July – September). This finding implies that allocation rules should be set up
within the next few years before serious international conflicts over the
sharing of the Zambezi’s waters arise.
Sandhya Sri Bonela, Department of Botany and Biotechnology,
Mrs. Avn College, Visakhapatnam,
India
Climate change impact on forest produce
assessing its economic impact on tribal community in India
Background and Rationale:
Forests play a key role in maintaining delicate relationships with human beings.
Impacts on the well being of forests caused by climate change and its consequent
economic impact on livelihood of tribals require utmost attention
India. The climate of
India
has seen various changes especially in quantity of rail fall, which in turn has
significant economic impact on tribals whose incomes chiefly depends on forest
produce. Tribals constitute 10 % of Indian population. AP State having
significant percentage of tribals. Eighty percent of tribal still depends on
forest produce as an income source. This paper investigates climate variability
impact on forest produce and its economic impact on tribal community in Andhra
Pradesh. Methodology: Study analyses time series of annual rainfall (June, July,
August & September) impact on forest produce, and its subsequent economic impact
for the last 10 years. Year wise rain fall index, forest produce index, income
index, and consumption index were calculated by administering schedule.
Randomly, 1000 tribal households included for this study, which also considers
socio-economic factors. Climate change impact on forest produce estimated based
on statistical modeling where produce from forest estimated based on forest
climate parameters (sea surface temperature, number of rainy days, daily amount
of rain fall, kinds of produce, quantity and quality of produces etc.). All
indexes standardized for coefficient comparison. Step wise multiple regression
used to establish its impact of variability of forest produce and resulted
economic impact on tribals. Results and Discussion: Summary of ANOVA test shows
significant tendency of rain fall decrease gives 60% reduction in forest produce
with remarkable (68%) economic impact. Alarmingly decreasing trend in rain fall
not only seen in number of rain days, but also so in the total amount leads to
substantial decrease in forest produce in tribal area. Conclusion & Managerial
Implications: Assessing economic impact on tribals due to reduction in
availability of forest produce as result of variable climate change is first
methodological approach in Andhra Pradesh. Government and NGOs may consider
findings evolving climate change strategies and promoting tribal economic
support.
Marit Brochmann, Department of Political Science,
University
of Oslo
Co-author: Indra de Soysa
Climate change and river conflicts: Could
globalization matter?
Those who suggest that
climate change can lead to wars in the future often argue that growing water
scarcity will matter. However, climate change is also taking place in an era
when states are cooperating more due to increased trade between them and the
spread of political democracy. Empirical research around the liberal peace has
provided strong evidence suggesting that states that trade more and share higher
levels of democracy do not fight. Yet, a strong criticism of this research
tradition is that it ignores critical issues, such as water scarcity and
rivalries. Realists have long-argued that states fight over vital national
interests. Using the issue of shared water resources as a proxy for a critical
issue domain, we test how joint democracy and joint trade are able to condition
the effects of a contentious issue that arguably contributes strongly to an
increased risk of conflict between states, particularly as climate change can
raise fears of resource scarcity. Previous research has found evidence
suggesting that geographical asymmetries in a river basin increase such a risk.
Unidirectional externalities caused by an upstream state in a river basin are
key to understanding why riparians may fight. If democracy and trade reduce the
risk of conflict, how well might they condition peace given the presence of
contentious riparian issues? We use a directed dyad data set that identifies who
the initiator and target of a militarized dispute is and examine whether
up-stream down-stream riparians fight, and how democracy and trade dependence
may condition this result.
Halvard Buhaug, Center for the Study of Civil War, PRIO
Co-authors: Håvard Strand, Jan Ketil Rød
Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars
Vocal actors within policy and practice contend that environmental variability and shocks, such as drought and prolonged heat waves, drive civil wars in Africa. Recently, a widely publicized scientific article appears to substantiate this claim. This paper investigates the empirical foundation for the claimed relationship in detail. Using a host of different model specifications and alternative measures of drought, heat, and civil war, the paper concludes that climate variability is a poor predictor of armed conflict. Instead, African civil wars can be explained by generic structural and contextual conditions: prevalent ethno-political exclusion, poor national economy, and the collapse of the Cold War system.
Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Center for Social Complexity, George
Mason University
Co-authors: J. Daniel Rogers, Paul Schopf,
Sean Luke, John Trimble
Agent-based modeling of climate change,
ecosystems and security: A research programme
The goal of this project is
to advance understanding of the effects of environmental uncertainty,
specifically climate variability, on polity and security conditions on multiple
scales. Climate uncertainty is investigated by developing, validating, and
analyzing new computational agent-based models (ABM) as tools for simulating
human societies that are spatially situated in regions with diverse ecosystems,
including climate with changing patterns. The new models focus on two regions
selected for the impact of climate change on security and ecosystems:
Sub-Saharan Africa (over a billion people at high risk for displacement,
disease, and starvation) and the Arctic Circumboreal region (where the fastest
ecological changes are already occurring with major strategic consequences). The
project responds directly to the need to understand natural-social linkages as
well as governmental and NGO recommendations. The core merit of the project is
its contribution to interdisciplinary innovations in knowledge, understanding,
and modeling of climate-security dynamics, providing an integrated computational
framework for modeling uncertainty in climate-society dynamics by simulating
“what-if” and policy-relevant scenarios in a seamless way, as they occur in
natural ecosystems with embedded polities. The spatial ABMs include climate
dynamics as well as other natural hazards/stressors with direct and indirect
effects security and complex governance institutions. Our
Mason-Howard-Smithsonian research group is composed of investigators experienced
in crossing disciplines and integrating their expertise from the social,
physical, and computational sciences, as well as in the development of
policy-relevant science with actionable insights. Earlier results with simpler
models developed collaboratively under the US NSF Human and Social Dynamics
(HSD) Program for long-term adaptation in Inner Asia (Cioffi, Luke,
Rogers) will be merged and extended for creating
richer hybrid models of security, ecosystems, and climate with transformative
potential. We seek international collaborators in this effort and wish to share
our results thus far and plans for future research.
Eran Feitelson, Department of Geography, Hebrew University of
Jerusalem
Co-author: Itay Fischhendler
The climate change and security nexus in the
Israeli-Arab context
Climate change is considered
today one of the central global crises, yet its regional security implications
are under-researched. The Israeli-Arab conflict is one of the most complex and
explosive conflicts at present. This paper asks to what extent are the global
climate change concerns and the regional Arab-Israeli conflict inter-related. To
address this question the paper analyzes the inter-relations at two levels. On
the first level we ask to what extent are the local effects of climate change
likely to aggravate the conflict. To this end we first review what the local
effects are. With the exception of sea level rise these are found to be highly
uncertain. As water is the most contentious issue that may be affected several
scenarios were run relating reduced water availability to needs. Even under a
40% reduction in available water supply the main implication is a somewhat
shortened schedule for desalination, which is needed in any case. This is
especially the case for the Gaza Strip, where such desalination is needed
already at present. The implications of these shifts for wastewater issues are
also discussed. As the first level effects are not seen to substantially
aggravate the basic factors underlying the conflict a second level analysis is
outlined. At this level three second-order aspects are outlined. The first set
of aspects are the implications of greater uncertainty induced by climate change
on negotiating positions of the parties, and hence on the likelihood that they
will indeed reach accommodation, mainly in the water arena. The second set of
issues is the security and geo-political constraints on adaptation and
mitigations policies. An outline of these aspects suggests that security and
geo-political considerations may indeed hamper both mitigation and adaptation
policies, in both the water and energy fields. As third aspect, noted but not
analyzed, are the wider possible regional effects of climate change,
particularly in Egypt, which may have an effect also on the
Arab-Israeli context.
Adejoke Olubimpe Folami, Department of Psychology,
Obafemi
Awolowo University
Co-author: Olusola Karimu
Climate change and cross border crime in Africa
Climate change has become a
front burner issue globally in recent time. There is now scientific and
physically proofs that the climates of the world are changing. Evidence includes
rise in sea levels, desertification, drought, drying of water resources,
increase in temperature unpredictability and erratic climate seasons. The
effects of climate change are already taking its tolls on the African in
particular and Nigeria
in general. It has become a threat to all sectors of the nation’s socio-economic
development, including the natural ecosystems and security of life and property.
The aim of this paper is to examine the impacts of climate change on the
nation’s security. The study establishes a correlate between climate change and
cross border crimes. Functional prerequisite, a theory propounded by Talcott
Parsons was employed to explain the reason why Nigeria
neighbors could not be sustained by their environment as a result of climate
change and had to engage in cross border crimes to survive hardship infested on
them by climate change. This study was carried out in three Nigerian borders-
Lagos/ Republic of
Benin border, Maiduguri/
Chad
border and Kano/Niger republic border. The combination of primary and secondary
data was employed in this study. The secondary data consist of data collected
from Police Custom and Immigration diaries. In-depth interviews were conducted
among sixty-two respondents. Police (23), Custom (18) and Immigration (21). This
study found out that climate change has led to the increase in cross border
crimes in Africa. Also, it was found out that
climate change could lead to international security breach. This paper
therefore, recommended low carbon economic development and the provision of
socio-economic sustainability programmes to the developing economy countries
like Nigeria.
Erik Gartzke, Department of Political Science,
University of
California,
San Diego
Climate change and interstate conflict
Since earliest recorded
history, civilizations have been plagued by, and preoccupied with, war. In
recent decades, developed portions of the globe have been blessed with a
distinct absence of interstate conflict, while warfare continues to occur in
less developed regions, most notably within countries. There are many possible
explanations for this pattern of war and peace, but geography clearly plays a
role, as zones of peace are concentrated in Europe, North America, and portions
of Northern Asia. How will global climate
change affect whether, or where, nations fight? While any answer must be
tentative, it should be possible to use available data on climate change, the
location of militarized disputes, and existing statistical models of interstate
conflict to see whether there is prima facie evidence for a shift in where
nations fight over roughly the last two centuries. Such an effort could form the
basis for further assessment of the conflict consequences of global climate
change.
Scott Gates, Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO &
Department of Sociology and Political Science, NTNU
Co-author: Christopher K. Butler
African range wars: Climate, conflict and
property rights
This paper examines the
effect of climate change on a type of armed conflict that pits sedentary
agriculturalists (farmers) and pastoralists (cattle herders) against each other.
Such conflicts are typically fought over water rights or grazing rights to
unfenced/unowned land. The state is rarely involved directly. To avoid the focus
on ethnic conflict, the term "communal conflict" is avoided. Instead the term,
"range war" is used. We then ask, how is “range war” conflict affected by
competing notions of property rights, the role of the state in defining property
and associated rights, and changing land quality due to climate change? The
empirical focus of the study is northern Kenya with some additional references to Tanzania and the Sudan.
Helga Haftendorn, Center for Transatlantic Foreign and
Security Policy Studies, Free University of Berlin
Coping with change in the
Arctic: The applicability of soft solutions to potential conflicts
Climate change in the
Arctic holds opportunities and risks for peoples and ecosystems in
the High North. The melting of the ice will give access to hitherto hidden oil,
gas and mineral deposits on the coastal shelves of
Canada, Greenland, Norway,
Russia and the USA. Over time,
new sea lines of communication will open up through the Canadian archipelago and
along the Siberian coast, potentially shortening trade routes to
Asia. Though the 1992 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea offers a
legal framework for the use of the coastal shelves and the Arctic Sea, a number
of marine boundaries and the legal status of the Northwest- and Northeast
passages have not been settled. I will ask whether there will be a scramble for
exploiting the Arctic’s resources and
opportunities, leading to potentially violent conflict between the contenders.
High opportunity costs and an adverse climate will, however, slow down any rush
to the North. Looking through the literature, Canadian and Norwegian estimates
are therefore counting on a long time frame, while some U.S.
and Russian analysts sound quite concerned about potential violent conflict in
the Polar region. Even if this author tends to side with those who take a rather
relaxed attitude as currently none of the Arctic states harbors any aggressive
design in furthering its interests in the Arctic, we are well advised to look at
crisis management strategies before a conflict actually breaks out. As an
all-encompassing treaty comparable to the Antarctic Treaty is no longer
feasible, we should look for more limited arrangements. Special promise holds
soft solutions, such as bilateral understandings, issue-specific or temporary
arrangements, deals that exclude difficult legal questions, joint projects and
exercises that increase mutual understanding. Which problems are suitable for
such a pragmatic approach? Which states will be amenable to them, and which
institutions can serve as a catalyst? What role will NGOs, local governments,
non-state actors such as firms and citizen groups, or indigenous people play? We
will not be able to present concrete solutions for potential conflicts, but
might offer a tool box of useful approaches that states and governments can
avail themselves to if the need arises.
Cullen Hendrix, Department of Political Science, University
of North Texas
Co-author: Idean Salehyan
After the rain: Political institutions,
water resources, and civil unrest in Africa
Recent research has linked
inter-annual rainfall variability to civil conflict in Africa (Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti 2004, Levy et al. 2005,
Hendrix and Glaser 2007, Gleditsch and Jensen 2009). Data on rainfall are
attractive because rainfall is an exogenous indicator that is linked to
freshwater availability, agricultural productivity, and overall economic
outcomes. We expand upon previous studies by including information on a wide
array of political disturbances not limited to armed conflict, and by analyzing
interactions with economic and political institutions. We investigate whether
the effect of rainfall shocks varies systematically according to variation in a)
the political opportunity structure, and b) structural features of the national
economy. Preliminary analysis suggests two main findings: hybrid regimes, those
that commingle democratic and authoritarian institutions, are more likely to
experience conflict after rainfall shocks than either consolidated autocracies
or democracies; and economies with large agricultural export sectors are more
likely to experience conflict in the wake of a rainfall shock than comparatively
less agriculturally-dominated economies. Our study has important implications
for assessing linkages between the environment, natural resources, and political
stability.
Daniel Adediran Ikuomola,
University of Ibadan, Nigeria
The socio-economic implication of climate
change, desert encroachment and communal conflicts in
Northern Nigeria
The economic activities in
Nigeria
clearly show that over 60 percent of the population is engaged in agriculture
for their livelihoods directly or indirectly. However overtime especially in the
last decade, a dwindling state of agriculture and the decreasing number of
farming population mostly in Northern Nigeria; known for the production of over
70 percent of the food crops in the country and other West African countries
call for concern. Recent geographical survey has attributed these happens to
desert encroachment into farmlands caused by the changes in climatic conditions.
In view of these, this study therefore seeks to observe the adjustment and
coping strategies of individuals in the affected communities, it examines the
communal conflicts among communities, and government interventions in reducing
the problems associated with climatic changes in the north and the entire
country. The study employed principally qualitative methodology: in-depth
interviews, observation and focus group discussion, among a cross section of
1200 households drawn randomly and via a snowballing sampling method in four
states (Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano and Borno), in Northern Nigeria. Major findings
from the study showed that desert encroachment on farmlands is forcing a lot of
youths to migrate and seek non-agricultural employment in urban centers, as well
as deviant survival strategies like crime and prostitutions. It was also
observed, that as desert encroaches farmlands, community disputes and conflicts
over fertile lands increases and the problem of internally displaced persons
were inevitable. Lastly, government interventions were claimed by 70 percent of
the respondents to be non existent, slow and limited to economic compensations
in some communities. This study concludes and recommends among other things, the
need for government, the farming population, and the scientific communities to
help in averting desert encroachment and the emanating conflict as a result of
climate change.
Thomas Bernauer, Center for Comparative and International
Studies, ETH Zurich
Co-authors: Anna Kalbhenn, Vally Koubi, and Gabriele Ruoff
Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Conflict
Despite many claims by high-ranking policy-makers and some scientists that climate
change breeds violent conflict, the existing empirical literature has so far not been
able to identify a systematic, causal relationship of this kind. This may either reflect
de facto absence of such a relationship, or it may be the consequence of theoretical
and methodological limitations of existing work. We revisit the climate–conflict issue
along two lines. First, at the theoretical level we specify the mechanism through
which climate change is likely to affect the risk of armed conflict. We focus on the
causal chain linking climatic conditions, economic growth, and armed conflict, and
also argue that the growth–conflict part of this chain is contingent on political system
characteristics. Second, at the methodological level we develop an approach that takes
care of endogeneity problems in the climate–economy–conflict relationship. We test
our theoretical argument on a global data set for 1950-2004. The results show that the
climate change–conflict hypothesis rests on rather shaky empirical foundations: we do
find some negative effects of climate change on economic growth, while stronger
economic growth is associated with a lower probability of civil conflict. But the
climate change effect on growth is not robust to changes in climate indicators and
samples. Our results also show that non-democratic countries are more likely to
experience armed conflict when economic conditions deteriorate. Our results suggest
that investing in climate-friendly economic growth and democracy can qualify as a
no-regrets strategy.
M.R. Ramesh Kumar, National Institute of Oceanography, India
Co-authors: S. Sankar, Dona Paula
On some aspects of active and break monsoon
conditions over the Indian subcontinent
The duration of active and
break days during the peak monsoon months of July and August decides the fate of
the monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Using a new updated version
of the high resolution gridded (one degree by one degree) daily rainfall data,
we have catalogued the active and break days for the period, 1901-2004. We refer
an event as a break if the all India rainfall is less than 9 mm/day and the
conditions persists for three consecutive days and if it occurs in the mid
monsoon months of July and August. Breaks and active days identified by our
method were in general consistent with those identified by the conventional
methods of the India Meteorological Department. Prolonged breaks during a season
can lead to a deficit monsoon. The timing and the duration of the active and
break events are particularly important for an agricultural country like
India, where 60-80% of the mean annual rainfall
is received during the southwest monsoon season. Further, prolonged breaks can
adversely affect the crop development, growth and yield.
Haakon Lein, Department of Geography NTNU
Co-authors: Ivar Berthling, Cathrine Brun,
Ivar Holand, Wenche Larsen, Päivi Lujala, Rita Rosvoldsaune, Jan Ketil Rød, Geir
Vatne
Mapping climate change, natural hazards and
the vulnerability of places in
Norway
It is commonly assumed that
climate change will lead to more extreme weather, causing damaging floods,
landslides and storms. The VulClim project aims to develop a method for mapping
vulnerabilities of particular regions and places to such climate change induced
environmental hazards. Whereas vulnerability studies tend to focus only on the
peoples exposure to environmental hazards and we combine that with mapping of
social vulnerabilities in order to assess the total ‘vulnerability of a place’
today and in the future. This include: -Mapping present and future environmental
climatic change related hazards, their frequency and the associated impact
areas, based on the use of existing hazards assessments (flooding, sea level
rise, slides) as well of local climate change scenarios. The output will be a
set of climate change induced local geophysical hazard scenarios and maps.
-Mapping present and future social vulnerabilities. For this purpose we apply
the Social vulnerability Index (SoVi)* which provides a consistent comparative
metric of social vulnerability based on the underlying socioeconomic and
demographic profile of places. The project will produce a SoVi for 2009 and
2050. The combined mapping of environmental hazards and social vulnerabilities
will reveal the ‘vulnerability of a place’ at present as well in a future as
impacted by climate change as well as social and economic changes. We will in
the paper for the first time present a set of vulnerability maps of
municipalities in Norway for 2009 and 2050. In connection with
this we will discuss a) potential and problems linked to quantifying and
indexing social vulnerability b) epistemological as well as practical problems
in the process of combining social science and natural hazard indicators.
Kristin Linnerud, Center
of International Climate and
Environmental Research - Oslo
Co-author: Dirk Rübbelke
Climate change, nuclear power and energy
supply security
During the heat waves in 2003
and 2006 nuclear power plants in several European countries had to reduce
production due to reduced access to cooling water, limitations imposed by the
maximum condenser pressure or regulation on maximum temperature of the return
water. According to a survey conducted by the German research institute ZEW in
June 2009, 74 percent believe that such shut downs will occur more frequently in
the future and 51 percent believe that this will constitute a risk to energy
security in Europe. We use econometric models
to estimate the impact of environment temperature on nuclear capacity load. The
data is collected from three nuclear power plants to illustrate how the impact
varies with cooling technology. Finally, we use projected frequency and duration
of future heat waves to predict how often partly/total shutdowns will occur for
given cooling technologies.
Ola Listhaug, Department of Sociology and Political Science, NTNU & Centre
for the Study of Civil War, PRIO
Co-author: Berit Kvaløy
Public opinion on global warming: A
comparative study of 48 countries
Public opinion plays an
important role for how societies manage the consequences of global warming and
attempts to eradicate its root causes. Public awareness is a first step toward
support for public policies that will make an effort to solve the problem. In
this paper we analyze data from the 2005-2007 World Values Survey to examine how
the mass publics in 48 countries from the main continents rate the seriousness
of the problem of global warming. We do this both in an absolute sense and
relative to other environmental problems in the world as well as for problems in
the country where the person lives. The comparisons will allow us to provide a
more nuanced and realistic view of how global warming is assessed in comparative
public opinion. Next, we develop a multilevel model to explain variations in
public opinion on global warming. We assume that public opinion is formed in an
interplay between individual preferences and social position, and macro
characteristics of countries. We include several groups of micro variables:
value preferences, ideology, partisanship, social class and other background
characteristics. The theoretical justification for including these variables is
developed mainly from a new politics perspective. In the macro model we include
variables tapping into the level of economic and social development of countries
(GDP, Human Development Index) and variables that are linked to global warming
(energy consumption, CO 2 emissions). Finally, we study how public opinion on
global warming is linked to important personal beliefs and attitudes like trust
in political institutions, support for democratic values, and the fundamental
belief that mankind can be in charge of own destiny instead of being ruled by
fate.
Päivi Lujala, Department of Economics, NTNU
Economic effects of natural disasters
This study uses econometric
methods to investigate the economic consequences of natural disasters.
Catastrophes such as typhoons, extensive droughts, and floods have caused
significant economic and human losses throughout the human history. However,
only a few studies have attempted to investigate economically relevant questions
relating to natural disasters. This study aims to fill this gap by looking at
the medium and long-term impact of natural disasters on growth. In the respect
to the future global warming, which is expected to increase both the severity
and frequency of such disasters, such a study gives important input in
understanding how economies may be affected by the climate change. From previous
studies we know that changes in rainfall in Africa
and low income level in general are related to a higher risk of armed civil
conflict. This stresses the importance of quantifying the economic effect of
natural disasters. It may also allow for using natural disasters as an
instrument for abrupt changes in income level in the studies of armed civil
conflict.
Achim Maas, Adelphi Research, Berlin
Co-author: Alexander Carius
Territorial integrity and sovereignty:
Climate change and security in the Pacific
In this paper, it is argued
that the impacts of climate change (CC) on the Pacific region, particular the
Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS), is more complex and goes beyond
the current political discourse on “climate refuges” and vanishing atolls. CC
will have profound political and economic consequences, affecting territorial
integrity, statehood, and sovereignty and challenge the geopolitical landscape.
In this paper we (1) review the implications of CC on security in the PSIDS and
(2) assess the wider regional and geopolitical implications. This paper builds
on extensive literature review, document analysis, and a series of interviews
and stakeholder consultations carried out in the Pacific region in 2009. CC in
the PSIDS already leads to changing weather patterns and increased natural
disasters, leading to salt water intrusion and soil erosion and the loss of
coral reefs and thus affecting food security, fisheries, and agriculture. Local
livelihoods are further threatened by the introduction of new diseases and
impacts on the sanitation. Migration increases, but rather internal than
external, creating tensions over customary land rights and identity conflicts
associated with land. Violent conflicts over land due to migrations have
surfaced recently in Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. Most importantly, the
impacts of CC coincide with rapid economic and social change which by itself
poses significant pressure on the stability of PSIDS. Sea-level rise will
reshape the PSIDS’s land and maritime boundaries, loosing thousands of square
kilometers of territory – at a time, when the region becomes economically more
relevant in terms of forest resources, commercial deep sea mining and fisheries.
Small atolls like Kiribati
and Tuvalu
may physically vanish. This raises the question, how long PSIDS are recognized
as states: Most of the political power of the PSIDS stems from bloc votes in
international organizations. Thus, it will be shown that CC will tax two key
qualities of sovereign states: Territorial integrity and sovereignty and voting
rights in the international community.
Badenahally Chikkarangappa Nagaraja, Department of
Environmental Sciences, Bangalore University
Co-author: R.K. Somashekar
Impact of drought on agriculture: Challenges
facing poor farmers of Karnataka, South India
India has about 18% of world’s
population and 15% of livestock population to be supported from only 2% of
geographical area and 1.5% of forest and pasture lands. The arid regions of India
cover an area of 317,090 km2 is exclusively depend on rain-fed crops, even
modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall should
cause consternation to large section of farming community. Karnataka ranks
second, next only to Rajasthan in India, in terms of total geographical area
prone to drought. Among its 28 districts, 18 are drought prone. During the
years, 2001-02 and 2002-03 it faced consecutive droughts. The present study
conducted to assess the consequences drought in north Karnataka with special
emphasis on agriculture and socio-economic conditions. Two districts of
Karnataka (Raichur and Koppal) each belonging to severely affected categories
and representing arid climatic condition. A sample of 90 households was sampled
and analyzed. The annual income of the households reduced to half in drought
year. The reduction was more in case of crops followed by labor. There was
significant difference in the crop yield during normal and drought years.
Similarly significant difference was noticed in human and livestock migration
during drought years. India
came up with her National Climate Change Action Plan in July 2008 with 8
missions to deal with climate change. While the detailed action plans for each
mission are yet to be formulated, much of these missions’ transformation into
reality is contingent upon the response at the state level. In this regard
Karnataka state established natural disaster management unit to tackle the
repeated droughts. The complex and multidimensional nature of drought requires a
long term, well organized and coordinated research and action involving all the
stakeholders. In this the present study will highlight the ongoing efforts of
state governments and Non government organization in managing drought situation
in arid region of north Karnataka, south India.
Peter F. Nardulli, Department of Political Science,
University
of Illinois
Climate change, cataclysmic events and
societal stability: A quasi-experiment
Climate change poses a threat
to core human needs and many view it as a security “threat multiplier” in
vulnerable countries that lack the capacity to adapt to its ecological effects.
But the empirics are unconvincing, due to design issues and the paucity of
appropriate data. This paper uses a quasi-experimental design to examine the
impact of cataclysmic events associated with climate change (floods, droughts,
storms, etc.) on societal stability. Information on disasters comes from CRED;
dependent variables are derived from data on destabilizing events generated by
the Social, Political and Economic Event Database Project (SPEED). SPEED uses
advanced information technologies to extract information from a global archive
of 35 million digitized news reports (1946- ). SPEED employs a multi-tier
destabilizing event ontology with 78 discrete categories within four groups:
political expression events (demonstrations, speeches, symbolic acts),
politically motivated attacks, destabilizing state acts (curfews, martial law,
censorship), political power reconfigurations, and refugee movements. SPEED’s
event data are temporally and geographically referenced to the city-day and we
employ chaining technologies to “link” related events (e.g., refugee movements
that led to attacks). Many variables are coded for each event (participants,
weapons, effects, interventions, origins). To conduct this research a sample of
100 randomly selected major disasters that occurred since 1946 was constructed.
SPEED isolated all reports on destabilizing events in the countries affected by
the disaster for eighteen months before and after its occurrence. The event data
are supplemented by data from SPEED’s parent project, the Societal
Infrastructures and Development Project (SID), which is concerned with the role
of institutions and contexts on welfare. Thus, in addition to testing the impact
of catastrophic events on instability across the pre and post groups, we will
examine the mediating effects of institutions (political, legal), interventions
(aid disbursements, peacekeeping forces), and contexts (wealth, food production,
water).
Charles Nhemachena, Council for Scientific & Industrial
Research, Johannesburg
Co-author: Rashid Hassan
Economic impacts of climate change on
agriculture and implications for food security in Southern
Africa
This study measured the
economic impacts of climate change on crop and livestock farming systems in
Southern Africa based on a cross-section survey of over 2000 farming households
from South Africa,
Zambia and Zimbabwe. We analyzed the response of net
revenue from crop and livestock agriculture across various farm types and
systems in Africa to changes in climate normals
(i.e. mean rainfall and temperature). The sensitivity of net farm revenues was
used to make inferences on the food security implications of climate change in
the region. The analyses controlled for effects of key socioeconomic,
technology, soil and hydrological factors influencing agricultural production.
Results show that warmer and drier climates adversely affect net farm revenues
translating into worsening food security situation in the region. Specialized
crop production is the most vulnerable to warming and lower rainfall whereas the
small-scale mixed crop and livestock system predominantly typical in
Southern Africa is the most tolerant. These results have important
policy implications especially for suitability of the increasing tendency toward
large-scale mono-cropping strategies for agricultural development in
Southern Africa
and other parts of the continent in light of expected climate changes. Mixed
crop and livestock farming and irrigation offered better adaptation options for
farmers against further warming and drying predicted under various future
climate scenarios.
Michael Folami Olakunle, Department of Sociology,
Adekunle
Ajasin University
Climate change and inter-ethnic conflict
between Fulani herdsmen and host communities
Climate change is caused by
the activities of human beings on earth. The effects of climate change cut
across the physical, social, political, and economic world. The unbridle effects
of climate change on human beings have been so severe and call for urgent
attention. The aim of this paper is to examine the security implications of
climate change on the communities that host Fulani herdsmen from the North that
were forced to migrate South ward as a result of draught, food shortage and
unusual weather. This paper also designed to examine the form of social
relations (conflict) that has developed as a result of climate change. Social
Conflict theory provides theoretical explanation for this study. Social conflict
theory is Marxist-based social theory which argues that individuals and groups
within society have differing amounts of material and non-material resources and
that the more powerful groups use their power in order to exploit groups with
less power. Push and pull factors theory of migration was also employed to
explain the reason why Fulani herdsmen have to migrate forcefully from the North
to the South. Three communities were selected from the six States in the
Southwest, Nigeria for this study. The communities
selected were Shaki, Efon-Alaye and Ilobu. Data were collected through in-depth
interviews among fifteen (15) Fulani herdsmen, thirty-nine (39) opinion leaders
and six (6) traditional rulers. It was found out that series of armed conflicts
have occurred between the Fulani herdsmen and the host communities. Food
shortage, draught and shortage in animal forage resulted from climate change
brings about force migration to the herdsmen. It was also found out that the
host communities have known no peace since Fulani herdsmen invaded their
communities. This paper recommended the reduction in human activities that could
lead to climate change in the world.
Gudrun Østby, Department of Political Science, University of
Oslo & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO
Climate change, inequality, and urban
violence: City-level evidence from household surveys in Africa and
Asia, 1986–2006
Hundreds of millions of urban
dwellers in low and middle-income countries are at risk from the direct and
indirect effects of climate change. Rapid urbanization puts significant demands
on city governments’ ability to provide public services like adequate housing,
electricity, water supply, health care, education, and employment. Urban
population growth holds a central place in the environmental security literature
for two reasons: First, rural-to-urban migration is seen as a consequence of
high and increasing population pressure in the countryside, leading to rural
scarcity of renewable resources like cropland and freshwater. Second, rapid
urbanization may cause many of the same environmental problems that plague
overpopulated and poorly managed rural areas: water scarcity and contamination,
land shortage, and insufficient sanitation. While average living standards are
usually higher in urban areas, economic growth does not result in prosperity for
all. Inequality among city dwellers is a potential source of frustration which
could lead to increased risk of urban violence, especially if certain cultural
groups are underprivileged and suffer from social exclusion. Based on
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from several developing countries in the
period 1986-2006, this paper constructs new city-level data on urban
in-migration as well as a wide range of indicators of absolute and relative
deprivation with regard to household assets, human capital, and access to public
services. The violence potential of these indicators is tested on a newly
developed dataset on social disorder in African and Asian cities.
Unmesh Patnaik, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences,
Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
Co-author: K. Narayanan
Vulnerability of households to natural
disasters: An analysis from a disaster prone region of India
It is widely recognized that
due to climate change there is going to be an increase in the frequency and
scale of natural disasters [floods, droughts, cyclones etc.]. As far as
developing countries are concerned, disaster risk is a major concern in these
countries as people in these countries are subject to a variety of risks [due to
disaster] concerning their livelihoods. The present paper attempts to study how
the households derive their income from different sources or combination of
sources and examine the impact of household characteristic on the income
function. Further, the study also tries to examine the impact of natural
disasters on the households living in disaster prone parts of
India. The study is undertaken in the state of
Uttar Pradesh [UP], which is one of the most vulnerable areas in India to
climate related disasters like floods and droughts and also is one of the five
most flood prone states of India. The data is drawn from primary household
surveys undertaken in the study area for flood and drought affected households.
From the analysis it can be said that shocks generated from natural disasters
are negatively related and highly significant across all the functional forms
used to estimate a micro level production function. Further it is also found
that household specific characteristics (like economic status of the household
and presence of migrant members in the household are significant determinants of
the income of the households. Further, it is argued that people living in
absolute poverty [those who cannot afford US $2 a day] will not be able to cope
up with the challenges posed by climate change. Therefore, the analysis carried
out in this paper suggests that climate change policies have to be integrated
with sustainable development strategies in general, and poverty alleviation
measures, in particular.
Clionadh Raleigh, Department of Political Science, Trinity
College Dublin
What are the most vulnerable doing? Distress
migration and communal conflicts in the Sahel
belt
The Sahel belt in
Africa is home to many marginalized groups who are believed to be
the main victims of climate change. Disenfranchised and often the poorest
citizens within states, marginalized groups are, in part, forced to fend for
themselves in coping, mitigating or adapting to climate change. This paper
specifies which strategies are used to continue living on degraded or disaster
affected land. From an initial study, intermittent distress migration and
communal conflict over scarce local resource use are on the increase. In an
analysis of the patterns of migration and communal conflict in
Ethiopia,
Kenya, Niger and Mali, the political marginalization of
groups shapes instability on the local level.
Parul Rishi, Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal
Co-authors: MD Omprakash, Ruchi Mudaliar
Behavioral mapping of Indian urban
settlements towards changing climate: An empirical study
There is a pressing need to
address issues related to adaptation, vulnerability and coping in developing
nations as these have most of the world’s urban population, high-risk urban
sites and the largest deficiencies in adaptive capacity. The established fact
that anthropogenic factors account for one of the major contributors to climate
change makes it necessary to probe into behavioral facets as in spite of the
best possible efforts around the globe to combat climate change, it is felt that
people are still not as seriously aware/ alarmed of the expected future risk as
they should be. To explore such behavioral dimensions, a nationwide study was
conducted in semi-arid climatic zone of India [N=137 (M=68; F=69)] to study the
effect of class of the city and gender on perceptions of adult urban settlements
towards changing climate. CCPI (Climate Change Perception Inventory) was
especially designed to obtain data on Likert type scale. ANOVA indicated that
respondents of small cities (population >1 million) were found to be more
seriously concerned about the effect of changing climate and were more aware
about various phenomenon related to global warming than citizens of big cities
who were indifferent and not much concerned about the effect of changing climate
and were more aware about various phenomenon related to global warming than
citizens of big cities (population < 2 million) who were indifferent and not
much concerned about all these issues. Significant gender differences were also
obtained with a trend of males being more concerned about climate than females.
Scientific education was also found to be instrumental in making people more
aware about the phenomenon of climate change. Results were interpreted in line
with article 6 of New Delhi Work Programme of UNFCC (2007) in which special
effort to foster psychological/behavioral change has been stressed through
public awareness.
Mustafa Saroar, Asian Institute of Technology,
Bangkok
Co-author: Jayant K. Routray
Climate awareness and adaptation efficacy
for livelihood security in coastal
Bangladesh: A multivariate analysis
This paper identifies and
assesses quantitatively the influences of various factors on people’s climate
awareness and adaptation efficacy. A total of 285 respondents from coastal
villages in Bangladesh
are randomly interviewed. Familiarity with, perception of and intuitive
knowledge about climate change-sea level rise (CC-SLR) have been used as
indicators of climate awareness. Employing principal component analysis (PCA) a
total of 12 factors fall under 8 components (Eigenvalues >1) are identified
which explain 72% of the variance. Using iterative backward method in multiple
regression models the explanatory powers of these twelve factors are tested.
Respondent’s duration of living in the coast, social networking, habit of
listening radio, and occupation appear to be the strongest predictor of
familiarity with climate events (F (10, 274) = 21.96, p=0.05, R2 = 0.45 (R2adj =
0.43)). Similarly, educational attainment, scarcity of water, exposure to
salinity and occupation appear to be the strongest predictor of perception of
climate change events (F (7, 277) = 24.34, p=0.05, R2 = 0.38 (R2adj = 0.37)).
Likewise, age, family size, scarcity of fresh water, and occupation appear to be
the strongest predictor of intuitive knowledge about sea level rise impacts (F
(5, 279) = 10.61, p=0.05, R2 = 0.16 (R2adj = 0.15)). Finally for adaptation
efficacy- respondent’s perception of climate change, duration of living,
available farm land, and use of radio appear to be the strongest predictor (F
(7, 277) = 308.48, p=0.05, R2 = 0.89 (R2adj = 0.88)). These findings indicate
that socio-demographic, behavioral and access to information related factors
play very instrumental role in climate awareness. These factors tandem with
climate awareness guide the adaptation efficacy of people. The finding is
substantive for policy makers and planners in designing climate awareness
raising programmes to encourage coastal community for anticipatory adaptation
for livelihood security against climate change-sea level rise.
Jürgen Scheffran, Institute for Geography, KlimaCampus, Hamburg
University
Co-authors: P. Michael Link, Janpeter
Schilling
Integrated assessment of climate security
hot spots in the Mediterranean region
To enhance the understanding
of potential security risks posed by climate change, an adaptive framework for
integrated assessment of climate security hot spots in the Mediterranean region
will be presented, with the Nile
river basin as a case study. It is expected that the Mediterranean region will
be severely affected by global warming. Rising temperatures exacerbate existing
problems of desertification, water scarcity and food production. Spillover
effects (migration, ethnic links, resource flows, arms exports) could expand the
geographical extent of a crisis. The aim of this assessment is to identify the
key links between climate change and society and the potential for creating
destabilizing cascading effects and tipping points. The main focus lies on human
beings and their knowledge, perception and response patterns. A micro-level
analysis of the regional security complex will be prepared, including spillover
effects connecting different hot spots. Data analysis and modeling tools
(agent-based modeling, social network analysis and GIS-based spatial analysis)
provide the basis for an interactive environment of decision analysis and
stakeholder participation from the region. Different scenarios and responses are
presented, and alternative strategies are discussed that seek to influence the
crucial decision points along the causal chains from climate change to human
insecurity, societal instability and violent conflict. Cooperative approaches
for conflict prevention and institutional frameworks to address security risks
will be considered. Such approaches pose a challenge to regional and global
governance structures, whose objective it is to combine solutions from both
climate and security policy.
Tobias Siegfried, Earth Institute, Columbia University
Co-author: Thomas Bernauer
Seeking solutions to the conflict over water
and energy in Central Asia
Water resources management in
the Central Asia region faces formidable
challenges. First, the hydrological regimes of the two major rivers in the
region, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, are
complex and vulnerable to climate change. The discharge in both rivers is driven
mainly by snow and glacial melt. The impact of climate change on these key
hydrological processes is not sufficiently understood and no mitigation and
adaptation strategies are in place. Second, the administrative-institutional
system is fragmented, with six independent countries sharing control, often with
rival objectives. Thus, neither water nor hydropower resources are managed
collectively and cooperatively. It should come as no surprise that water and
energy allocation among the various sectors and users is not efficient. Third,
the ongoing construction of new dams in Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Afghanistan
is adding tension to the existing upstream-downstream conflict. Fourth,
degradation of agricultural soils and insufficient flows for ecosystems are
issues of growing concern in the downstream. The recent breakdown of existing
resource-sharing mechanisms in the region is troublesome and points to increased
international conflict in the near future. By means of a spatially and
temporally distributed precipitation-runoff model of the Syr Darya river, we
quantify impacts on runoff due to climate change (i.e. changes in a)
intra-seasonal runoff with a shift of the runoff peak towards the
pre-agricultural season and b) changes in inter-annual average runoff over
decadal timescales). Under typical regional demand scenarios, it will be shown
that the construction of additional large-scale, man-made storage is a necessary
condition for successfully dealing with these substantial impacts, but not a
sufficient one. The key to a stable and economic growth-enabling water and
energy future in the region lies in the design of dynamic management strategies
where allocation tradeoffs are properly quantified. Due to the flexible nature
of the computational models, decision makers in the region can use these tools
for institutional design for the purpose of optimal, dynamic resource sharing
under environmental, political and economic uncertainty.
Rune Slettebak, Department of Sociology and Political
Science, NTNU & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO
Co-author: Indra de Soysa
High temps, high tempers? Estimating the
effects of weather disasters on social unrest, 1950–2007
The issue of climate change
and security is hotly debated in many arenas. Most systematic studies to date
have examined the association between natural disasters and civil wars. The
results are mixed because there is some confusion due to the mixing of
non-climate related disasters, such as earthquakes and volcanoes and extreme
weather events, and what type of violence these events may spawn. Previous
studies have looked at the outbreak of civil war defined as organized violence
against a state. This study will focus exclusively on weather events, the most
relevant disasters for judging the impact of climate change, on political
violence at a lower threshold than civil war, namely protests, riots,
demonstrations etc. for a long period of time (1950 to present). We will index
this form of violence as well as examine them independently. Using multivariate
methods, this study will use data on extreme weather events affecting population
centers and use several variables gleaned from theory to test how extreme
weather events predict violence within these populations. The behavior of people
under these conditions in the past and in recent times will allow us to assess
how things might turn out given the changes to weather patterns expected from
climate change. This study will be the first to address this issue both
theoretically and empirically using longitudinal data in systematic ways.
Frode Stordal, Department of Geosciences, University of
Oslo
Co-authors: Jón Egill Kristjánsson, Terje
Berntsen, Lena Tallaksen, Chong Yu Xu
Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change
in Sub-equatorial Africa
In Africa future climate change is projected to lead to a warming
which is very likely to be larger than the global average throughout the
continent. Precipitation will change, most noticeably with drying in the
southern and in the northern parts of the continent and increased precipitation
over the Ethiopian Plateau. Although there have been regional studies of climate
change in sub-equatorial Africa less attention
has been paid to climate change over the African regions south of the equator.
Global climate models are known to have significant errors over Africa. The capability of regional climate models to downscale
climate projections is yet unclear, since only few regional modelling studies
have focused on sub-equatorial Africa. In the
project SoCoCA (Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change in Sub-equatorial
Africa) the performance of both global and regional climate models over Africa will be better investigated and improved.
During the 20th century, droughts have already affected Southern Africa. Model experiments suggest a significant decrease
in run-off over sub-equatorial Africa
in the future. This comes on top of an estimated reduction in water availability
per capita due to population growth in many countries. There are several tens of
million people at risk of increased water stress in sub-equatorial
Africa by the middle of this century. The agricultural
sector is particularly sensitive to climate variability and change. Agriculture
is a mainstay in the economy of many African countries, and supports the
livelihoods of large sections of population. In Africa
local groups that depend primarily on natural resources for their livelihoods
are vulnerable to climate change, since their resources are already stressed by
other factors. Effective adaptation to climate variability and change is
hampered by a variety of factors, such as uncertainties in regional climate
projections, a low level of awareness among decision-makers, limited national
capacities in climate monitoring and forecasting, and lack of co-ordination in
the formulation of responses. These represent challenges for both natural and
social sciences and indeed favour an inter-disciplinary approach. An initial
assessment of costs of adaptation to climate change related to water resources
in South Africa has been
made, but in general very little information is available on the cost of
adaptation to climate change for water resources in Africa.
The main objective of this work is to quantify socioeconomic consequences of
climate change related to agriculture in sub-equatorial Africa. This objective necessitates an interdisciplinary approach.
We combine various fields of natural and social sciences to reach a set of
sub-objectives, which are to improve regional climate projections for
temperature and precipitation in sub-equatorial Africa, provide estimates of
changes in hydrology and concurrent impacts on agricultural productivity,
estimate national economic consequences due to changes in agriculture, and
suggest and validate changes in agriculture to adapt to projected hydrological
changes.
Amsale Kassahun Temesgen, FAFO, Oslo
The impact of environmental and political
influences on pastoral conflicts in southern Ethiopia
The leading documents on
climate change, the IPCC reports and the Stern Review, state that one of the
likely consequences of climate change is increased conflict. However, the
evidence for making this claim is scant. The mechanism, it is argued, that leads
from climate change to conflict is scarcity of resources brought about by
natural disasters such as drought and floods. However, there is little empirical
evidence that support this. Scarcity of resources may result both in conflict or
cooperation. The role customary institutions of resource management play in the
face of resource scarcity is not adequately investigated to determine what
outcome the dynamics of competition over scarce resources will have. The paper
aims to contribute to filling this gap by looking at the pastoralists of
southern Ethiopia. Ethiopia is located in a region that is most
likely to suffer from the decline of precipitation as a result of climate
change. Available meteorological data from the last half century shows a
persistent decline in average annual rainfall. In the arid and semi-arid
regions, this is accompanied by extensive environmental degradation. Although,
the area of study has a well developed customary institution of resource
management and conflict resolution, it is plagued by escalated, inter-ethnic
conflicts. The paper investigates the development and dynamics of these
conflicts across time in light of deteriorating climate and environment.
Conflict and precipitation data will be matched both annually and seasonally to
see if there is any discernible pattern. In addition, the role other social,
economic and political factors play in influencing local conflicts will be
elaborated. The sources of information are reports produced by local NGOs and
different actors that work on conflict resolution in the area and two
qualitative fieldworks in the region.
Ole Magnus Theisen, Department of Sociology and Political
Science, NTNU & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO
Scarcity, elections, and communal clashes in Kenya
Climate change has been
argued to result in violent conflict through increased competition over
increasingly scarce resources such as water and land. Case studies on the
scarcity-conflict nexus have been criticized for not having enough firm evidence
of an actual deteriorating amount or quality of renewable resources leading to
conflict. This study seeks to address the micro-processes of armed violence in a
context of a low per capita base of renewable resources, aided by disaggregated
data. By analyzing the relationship between armed clashes in Kenya during the
period 1989-2008 and local information of development, resource access,
population density and patterns, and ethnic composition. Since the timing of
some of the most violent episodes is argued to be near elections, the study will
focus on the historical and contemporary relationship between actors. Since
there are also suggestions that the link between violence and scarcity is
spurious, a case study supported by quantitative evidence is likely to yield
helpful insights on how much renewable resource scarcity is a cause of, a simply
correlating factor with, or an effect of conflict. The focal point of the
article is to develop new insights into the possible links between scarcity and
conflict. It therefore also addresses factors that hinder conflicts over
renewable resources to arise, and when conflict is a fact, how they can be
resolved through cooperation.
Jaroslav Tir, Department of Political Science,
University of
Georgia
Co-author: Douglas M. Stinnett
Coping with climate change: International
institutions as strategies for mitigating conflicts over water resources
Scientific consensus has
acknowledged that, even with the implementation of extensive cuts to greenhouse
gas emissions, some of the effects of climate change will be unavoidable.
Therefore, policy responses must include strategies for adapting to some of the
consequences of climate change. In this paper, we consider how well
international riparian institutions might serve as a means of adaptation by
preventing the ecological effects of climate change from creating problems in
the area of water politics and security. Climate change is likely to result in
lower levels of reliable precipitation and glacial runoff, which will reduce the
replenishment of many rivers and decrease the water available to large portions
of the world’s population. In addition, climate change will increase the demand
for river water, due to drought and the decline of other water sources.
Increased strain on rivers that are shared amongst multiple states can spill
over into the political realm and increase international tensions. In this paper
we evaluate the argument that the effectiveness of river-use agreements depends
on their institutional design. We focus specifically on provisions for joint
monitoring, conflict resolution, treaty enforcement, and the delegation of
authority to intergovernmental organizations. Agreements that contain more of
these features should be better equipped to deal with both expected and
unforeseen consequences of climate change by preventing conflicts, resolving
disputes before they escalate, and providing a basis for the cooperative
environmental management of rivers. We test the link between institutional
design and international conflict between signatory states by analyzing a data
set of 315 river treaties signed since 1950. The empirical results are
supportive of our expectations and reveal that highly institutionalized river
agreements are indeed significantly more effective at steering riparian states’
interactions away from conflict and toward cooperative outcomes.
Ethemcan Turhan, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Social vulnerability to hydro-climatic
stressors in the Lower Seyhan river basin
Turkey, as a part of eastern belt of
Mediterranean Europe is particularly vulnerable to climate changes in the Mediterranean
Basin (IPCC, 2007). There is 66% likelihood that
today’s 100-year droughts will return every 50 years (or less) in southeastern
Europe by 2070. This study is motivated by
Turkey’s commitment to UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change and looks into the social vulnerability of impoverished migrant
communities in the Lower Seyhan
River Basin, at the southeastern coast of
Turkey. A 25% reduction in rainfall is expected
by 2070 for the Seyhan region on top of risks of salt-water intrusion 10 km
inland. Given the economic and social importance of the region in
Turkey’s agricultural economy, these changes
may bring substantive changes in land use, water resources management and
demography. Despite extensive research on GCM downscaling and climate change
impacts on hydrology and the agricultural economy, there exists little work
looking at poverty and differential vulnerabilities. This study combines two
approaches to vulnerability: the biophysical and the social. The migrant
seasonal agricultural workers arriving in the region to work for more than half
a year are identified as particularly vulnerable to hydro-climatic stresses. It
is critical that their vulnerabilities towards climate change are addressed in
the adaptation policy and the development policy in general.
Henrik Urdal, Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO
Co-author: Halvard Buhaug
Climate change, urbanization and civil war
This paper deals with one of
the most significant social consequences of climate change, namely migration.
Climate change could lead to increased migration following expected
environmental changes like gradual resource degradation, sea-level rise and more
severe weather. In the environmental security literature, migration is seen as
an important potential source of conflict, and some researchers and NGOs have
linked ‘climate refugees’ to greater insecurity. Climate-related migration is
most likely to intensify the global urbanization process. By 2050, it is
estimated that two thirds of the world’s population will live in cities, and the
greatest growth in urban populations will take place in the least developed
countries. Many of those migrating from rural to urban areas worldwide are
presumably ‘climate refugees’. Rapid urbanization presents many governments with
considerable challenges related to urban governance and the provision of
services, and many developing country governments are reported to be concerned
about the negative consequences of rapid urbanization, and to have implemented
measures to reduce urban growth. This paper will make use of a new dataset on
urbanization provided by the UN Population Division containing estimates for
urban and rural populations by age and sex. The paper will address whether
strong urban growth rates affect the propensity that states experience
low-intensity armed conflict. It will further address whether particular
demographic constellations of the urban population, such as very youthful or
male dominated urban populations are more associated with conflict. As such, the
paper may contribute to understand what security threat, if any, climate-induced
population movements may represent in the future.
Christian Webersik, Centre for Development Studies,
University
of Agder
Co-author: Christian Klose
Another Easter Island?
Climate change, human insecurity and politics in
Haiti
and the Dominican Republic
Two neighboring countries,
Haiti and the Dominican Republic,
occupy the same island and are exposed to a similar level of increasing
intensity of annual geohazards (e.g., topical storms, landslides, floods). But
an assessment of the relationship between geohazards, human well-being, and
political stability reveals different results. One hypothesis is that nations
with higher per capita incomes and political stability, e.g., the Dominican Republic, are more resilient to cope with
natural disasters and have greater capacity to adapt to future climate change
impacts than nations with lower per capita incomes and political instability,
e.g., Haiti.
One way to test this hypothesis was to determine risk levels by using a fuzzy
rule-based expert system. This artificial intelligence methodology integrates
varying severities of natural hazards with socio-economic and social
vulnerability factors. The research findings show that the Dominican Republic was able to respond more effectively
to natural disasters than Haiti not only due to its political and
economic circumstances but also because of its environmental policies and
practices. By contrast, little attention has been given in Haiti to both disaster preparedness and
mitigation due to the volatile security and political disorder. The data also
suggests that there was no direct spatio-temporal link between geohazards such
as the flood of May 2004 and Hurricane Jeanne in September 2004, and the
subsequent political violence (ousting of former President Aristide). Other
factors that might have contributed to the social insecurity in Haiti
included political exclusion and extra-legal activities (drug trafficking and
money laundering) and amplified by human-influenced factors compounding the
severity of geohazards, such as massive deforestation.
Erika Weinthal, Nicholas
School of the Environment, Duke
University
Co-authors: Jeannie Sowers, Avner Vengosh
Water, climate change and human security in
the Middle East and North Africa
Over the last few decades, a
rich literature has emerged analyzing the linkages between water scarcity and
conflict in the Middle East
and North Africa (MENA). Largely because the region’s water is both unevenly
distributed and shared across borders, much attention has focused on the
potential for conflict. Other scholars have refuted such ominous claims and
instead demonstrated that cooperation is much more prevalent. This paper shifts
the analysis away from macro-level issues of cooperation and conflict to a
micro-level analysis of human security and sustainable livelihoods within
states. Taking into account global climate change models and recently collected
hydrologic data on deteriorating water quality and availability in the MENA, we
will explore the potential for conflicts at the local level and impacts on human
security. Economic transformation and population growth are typically associated
with intensification of water exploitation and diminishing water resources. The
effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate conflicts over water
allocations, particularly between the agricultural and domestic sectors. The
paper will draw upon data collected on social protests and migration patterns
that are attributable to changes in water variability in the region. Moreover,
this paper seeks to integrate our understanding of governance institutions in
the region with the scientific data on hydrology and possible effects of climate
change in order to elucidate the conditions under which some countries may be
better positioned to prevent human insecurity.